You can't prove a 30% improvement against a number you never wrote down.
Most AI ROI arguments don't fail at the end, when the results come in. They fail at the start, when the team greenlights a pilot without agreeing what success would even look like. The fix is a pre-commitment: four numbers, agreed before you spend a dollar.
By Joe Perone, Senior Principal Last updated
What we talked through
ROI is not a slide you build after the project. It's a set of numbers you agree to before it. When a program can't defend its return later, the failure almost always traces back to one of these four gaps:
- No baseline. Nobody measured the "before." Without the current number, every claim of improvement is an argument, not a measurement.
- A vague target. "Better," "faster," and "more efficient" can't be scored. A target is a specific number by a specific date.
- No owner. A target with no name next to it is a wish. One person owns the number and reports on it.
- No kill criteria. The most-skipped and most-valuable line: the condition under which you stop. Without it, pilots turn into zombies that consume budget forever.
Write those four down and the ROI conversation at the end becomes a five-minute check against a number everyone already agreed to — not a debate.
Two nuances worth holding onto. First, soft ROI is real but dangerous alone: time saved, morale, and "innovation" matter, but if they're the only story, the program tends to get cut at renewal. Pair every initiative with at least one hard number. Second, time-to-value counts as much as size — a 60% reporting-time cut in six weeks beats a hypothetical 10× in eighteen months, especially for a board with a short attention span. And remember the number means different things to different people: an executive sponsor hears mission or business impact, a CFO wants defensible math, a board wants risk-adjusted confidence. Name which one you're speaking to.
Interactive · ~90 seconds
The ROI Pre-Commitment Worksheet
Fill in the four questions. The summary card on the right updates live — screenshot it, or send it to us for a second opinion. Nothing here is stored until you choose to email it.
Your pre-commitment
Start filling in the worksheet and your commitment appears here.
Directional only — the pace figure is a straight-line estimate, not a forecast.
Take it with you
The four-line ROI pre-commitment
| Agree on… | What a good answer looks like |
|---|---|
| Baseline | A measured "today" number with a unit and a source. If you can't measure it now, measuring it is step one. |
| Target | A specific number by a specific date — not "better." Tie it to a metric someone already reports on. |
| Owner | One named person accountable for the number and for reporting progress. Not a committee. |
| Kill criteria | The threshold and date at which you stop and reallocate. Decide it while you're still calm. |
High-intent? Send us your answers
Want a senior principal to pressure-test your worksheet?
Fill in the worksheet above, then submit your email — your summary comes with it. We'll reply with a second opinion on your baseline, target, and kill criteria. No pitch, no junior gatekeeper.
No spam, no drip sequence. We use your email to send what you asked for and, at most, one follow-up. Prefer to talk? Book a 30-minute strategy call — no deck, no junior gatekeeper.